It seems every year there are all these new movies that are nominated for Oscars. These movies are creative, unique and beautifully shot and acted, but yet… most movies that win best picture sort of get stuck in the muck of lost film history, getting confused and morphed into another movie of the similar genre, or better yet gets forgotten altogether. Look at the last seven best
picture winners: The Hurt Locker (2010) war drama, The King’s Speech (2011) historical drama, The Artist (2012) black and white drama, Argo (2013) historical drama, 12 Years a Slave (2014) historical drama, Birdman (2015) drama and last year’s Spotlight (2016) historical drama. As you can see from just these last seven best picture winners, four of them are historical dramas. Historical dramas seem to be the most legit among the best picture winners.
This year’s Nominees are pretty interesting, and they seem to consist of a lot of oddballs. A lot of random movies it seems no one have seen. The nominees for best picture are Arrival, Fences, Hacksaw Ridge, Hell or High Water, Hidden Figures, La La Land, Lion, Manchester by the Sea, and Moonlight. A survey of 35 students’ opinions was made on who they think will win Best Picture for this year, and the results will not surprise you.
Hacksaw Ridge: 5
Hell or High Water: 0
Hidden Figures: 3
La La Land: 10
Manchester by the Sea: 1
They were also asked what their predictions for Best Actor and Actress will be. These are the results.
ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea: 0
Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge: 8
Ryan Gosling, La La Land: 14
Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic: 5
Denzel Washington, Fences: 8
ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Isabelle Huppert, Elle: 3
Ruth Negga, Loving: 5
Natalie Portman, Jackie: 6
Emma Stone, La La Land: 16
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins: 5
So obviously everyone thinks that La La Land will dominate the Oscars this year, as it’s been nominated 12 times, and they’re right… for some of them. Sure, Emma Stone has it in the bag, along with best soundtrack as well as best song and best director (Damien Chazelle), but let’s look at best actor. Ryan Gosling was not considered by anyone the best performance in that movie, Emma Stone was. How to easily find this one out would be to look at the guilds and trust their decisions. That means the Screen Actors Guild, the Directors Guild of America and Producers Guild of America. They consist to be the most accurate when it comes to searching for who will win best actor, best actress and best director. Not only those, but the most trusted awards show to follow are the Golden Globes. Though it isn’t taken as seriously as the Oscars due to most of the guests getting hammered (drunk) by the end of the show. It seems that in the past 20 years the Golden Globes have predicted best actor correctly 70%, which a very reasonable rate it is, but the award for best actress is more probable, as they’ve predicted best actress 90% the same as the Oscars. So when it comes to deciding for best actor and best actress, stick with the Golden Globe’s choice. The only problem is… the Golden Globes split their actors and actresses into two categories; best actor/actress in a drama AND best actor/actress in a comedy or musical. That really makes things more difficult to predict, but that doesn’t have to mean it’s a 50/50 choice. This year’s winners for the Golden Globes best actors were Casey Affleck (who none of the students voted for, let alone knew) and Ryan Gosling (who mostly every student knew and voted for). We all know that Emma Stone has this one in the bag, so let’s focus on best actor. Most people think that Ryan Gosling will win, but here’s why Casey Affleck will win best actor. There is a moment in between January 25th and January 30th (around the time when the judges vote for the Oscars) in Google Trends when Casey Affleck jumps up to the number one spot, only for five days, then goes back down to number three. Why bring that up as a reason? Not only that Casey Affleck won the Golden Globes best actor, but that last year, in the 2016 Oscars a little movie called Spotlight raised in search trends at that exact time, or close to, then went all the way back down, and you know what happened? Spotlight won for best picture that year, which no one expected, except for those people keeping close attention to the search trends, and realizing that everyone was interested in that topic at that time. That is why Casey Affleck will win over Ryan Gosling at this year’s Oscars, because he actually was the best performance in the movie and that Ryan Gosling was not the best performance in La La Land.